boknows
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 Washington Post: BCS Doomsday Clock
BCS DOOMSDAY CLOCK
Saturday, October 21, 2006; E11
5 minutes until midnight
The season has reached a fork in the road.
It could be wrapped up nicely with a made-to-order national championship game between two undefeated teams (Southern California vs. the Ohio State-Michigan winner). Or it could dissolve into a clouded mess rampant with controversy and debate.
No school will have more of a say in which direction the season heads than USC.
If the Trojans win out, they almost certainly will play the winner of the Nov. 18 matchup between Ohio State and Michigan in Glendale, Ariz. That's assuming both the Buckeyes and Wolverines enter the Big Ten season finale undefeated.
If USC loses, however, debate will rage over who should join the Ohio State-Michigan winner in Glendale.
When Auburn was excluded from the national title game in 2004 despite an undefeated record, the Tigers were the only team with a compelling case that was left out. If USC loses, five schools would be clamoring to be included in the BCS title mix.
The Trojans have been fortunate to survive against middling Pacific-10 teams, beating Washington, Washington State and Arizona State in games decided by less than a touchdown. Considering the schedule ahead, which includes home games against Oregon, California and Notre Dame, a loss, and thus BCS chaos, seems probable.
Three Clock Moving Scenarios
· USC loses. Auburn and Arkansas win out. Does Auburn get into the BCS title game even though the Tigers failed to win their own division?
Probability: 35%
· USC loses to California. Auburn and West Virginia win out. Who gets in the BCS title game: Cal, Auburn or West Virginia?
Probability: 48%
· USC loses to Notre Dame. Auburn loses. Florida and West Virginia win out. Who gets in the BCS title game: West Virginia, Florida or Notre Dame?
Probability: 33%
© 2006 The Washington Post Company
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10/21/2006, 12:25 pm
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