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 Bham News: Weakling Games will hurt Tigers in BCS
Weakling games will hurt Tigers in BCS
Saturday, October 21, 2006
Auburn can't win today.
Oh, the Tigers can certainly beat Tulane; that's a foregone conclusion.
But in the BCS standings, that mysterious amalgamation of human polls and six computer rankings, Auburn loses as soon as it takes the field against the Green Wave.
Ranked No. 4 in the initial BCS standings, Auburn, no matter what it does on the field today against Tulane, or next week against Ole Miss, or the week after against Arkansas State, will lose ground.
In fact, if Florida and Auburn both go undefeated during the next three weeks, the Gators will likely jump over the Tigers in the BCS rankings.
"Look at the computer rankings," said Brad Edwards, who is ESPN's BCS expert. "Florida is fourth based on the computers, Auburn is fifth. Florida will do a better job holding or improving that average than Auburn, because Auburn's next three games are so weak, they will drag down the computer scores."
So while the Tigers keep winning games, they lose ground.
This is fair?
"You have to remember the BCS doesn't operate like a poll," Edwards said. "We have a tendency to fall in that trap. We think if a team ranked ahead of one team loses, they automatically fall back and everyone behind them moves up.
"The BCS is different."
As if we didn't already know that.
But what is fair? The human polls are suspect, because of potential human bias. But when you take the human element out and go to computers, you get rankings that don't make sense.
"A lot of SEC teams like to fall back on the argument that the SEC conference schedule is so tough," Edwards said. "And while I agree, the computers don't. I can't defend the logic of the computer, but the Pac-10 is the highest-rated conference right now. I can't tell you what the Pac 10 did to earn that, other than USC's wins over Arkansas and Nebraska, but that's what the computers say.
"And so it comes down to Auburn's non-conference schedule. Yes, Auburn's SEC schedule is incredibly tough. But when you don't play anyone out of conference that you legitimately have a chance to lose to, and you go head-to-head (in the BCS) with, say, USC - and the Pac-10 is rated tougher than the SEC - then USC's schedule is much tougher, top to bottom."
The answer, we all know, is a playoff. The only problem is, a playoff doesn't appear on the way any time soon.
Which means if Tommy Tuberville really wants Auburn to compete for a national championship, he'd better figure out a way to get at least one marquee non-conference game again.
And don't come crying about how nobody wants to schedule Auburn. If Ohio State and Texas and Southern Cal and Tennessee can routinely make it happen, then Auburn should be able to make it happen, too.
It might mean giving up something - like a precious home game - but if Tuberville is serious about bringing a national championship to Auburn, then it's time to get serious about the non-conference games Auburn plays. It's time to start playing the game the way the game is played.
Ray Melick's column appears Tuesdays, Thursdays and Saturdays. Write him at rmelick@bhamnews.com.
© 2006 The Birmingham News© 2006 al.com All Rights Reserved.
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10/21/2006, 12:29 pm
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